Today's Report
Spoke with Saito-san by Iridium sat phone at 1200 Tokyo time

Still hot but temps slightly down (32C).
Last night was the opposite of the previous night -- very light to no wind, so mostly motored to head more to the west.

Added Comment
Clearpoint now shows winds mainly out of the NE.

We give Saito the wind and weather conditions he can expect over the next few days approx, 60-120 miles in advance of his current position (where he will be in approx. 1 -2 days of sailing).

Today he told us the forecast we gave yesterday was not accurate, which was the first time he has made that comment. We had told him he would have mainly stronger winds out of the east. What he experienced was mostly dead air throughout the night.

We can see that the forecasts as given by the weather service do not always agree with the wind arrow (strength) depictions. We noticed yesterday that the wind arrows were actually quite weak, compared to the forecasts, which yesterday showed winds above 12 kt. However, in this instance the wind arrows turned out to be right.

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Today's Report
Spoke with Saito-san by Iridium sat phone at 1200 Tokyo time

Wind improved; out of NE and stronger.

Added Comment
Clearpoint now shows winds mainly out of the NE -- thus correct for Saito's current position.

(Note: We may have been leading him a bit too much over the last few days, but in this deep South Pacific area the forecast coverage areas are not as closely defined. He has just now reached latitude 20 S, which has been the forecast area we've had to use for the past 3 or 4 days. Today the extended forecast is for 22 S.

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Today's Report
Spoke with Saito-san by Iridium sat phone at 1300 Tokyo time

Says it was still hot and he was happy to hear that the temps should start dropping some. Has been 32C on-board. NZ autumn has started and he should start feeling that soon.

Winds are out of NNE and had settled some over the last two days, thus his best 24-hr DMG (distance made good) yesterday since Pago Pago.

Added Comment
Wind direction is currently good for his point of sail. Will strengthen over the next two days as a low passes through, and will change to out of the east.

Although his 24-hr distance has improved, at 1 pm today he reported his boat speed at 2.5 kt since the wind had dropped a bit just before the call.

Auckland (his approx. time zone) is 4 hours ahead of Tokyo -- 8 pm here is 12 midnight there according to World Clock. http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/meeting.html

We have been in touch with the New Zealand Royal Yacht Club leadership and have alerted them to Saito-san's arrival in just over two weeks.

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Today's Report
Spoke with Saito-san by Iridium sat phone at 1300 and then 1600 Tokyo time 03/19/08

Presently encountering heavy gale-force winds. Losing some progress as he struggles with gusts up to 45 kt. Was in a trough of a low pressure system about his nightfall and winds were abating somewhat. Had lunch but no break for dinner as steering was a constant job.

Added Comment
Said mainsail was difficult to get down in the growing wind and that sail slides were breaking - - lost four so far. (These slides attach the mainsail to the main mast as it is hoisted. There is one slide approx. every 2 or 3 feet.)

Finally could get the main down and completely furled. Complained about the poor design and condition of the mast and boom of a vessel primarily intended for motor-sailing around the Hawaiian Islands. All to be dealt with during the scheduled mast/rigging/sail replacement in Auckland.

Passed the thousand-mile mark of the remaining distance to port. Current heading is 280 degrees, which would put his nose into the wind and seas, as he waits for the weather conditions to settle down.

Low trough indicated by orange dashed line; orange balls are recent 
lightning strikes.
Arrows show the wind direction and strength. Lighter blue areas are 
less wind strength; orange areas indicate stronger wind.

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Today's Report
Spoke with Saito-san by Iridium sat phone at 1200 Tokyo time

Gale-force winds of last 1-1/2 days have abated for now. He's very tired after long watches to maintain steering during the gale. Was able to repair (sew) the mainsail at 3 locations where new rips occurred.

Lost 4 sail slides, but all were below the 2-pt reef line so he will keep the sail furled to that point and will replace the slides with on-board spares when the weather clears.

Added Comment
The wind caught him with the mainsail reefed 1 point (almost completely up) and it took a lot of effort to finally get it down and furled. With several of the slides broken, the sail kept jamming as he fought to bring it down in the rising wind.

With several crew this means turning the boat into the wind to release the pressure on the sail. As Crew No. 1 carefully steers into the eye of the wind, Crew No. 2 hauls in the boom, then releases the main halyard. Crew 2 goes to the mast and with Crew 3 helps ease the sail down. They then secure it to the boom, altogether taking 4 or 5 minutes, with some actions taking place simultaneously.

Saito had to do these jobs himself plus deal with the jamming caused by the broken slides. He said it took 2 hours from start to finish, finishing shortly before sunset. He can use the autopilot for steering assistance but the boat tends to fall off the heading at under 2 knots of headway.

Now back to normal.

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Today's Report
Spoke with Saito-san by Iridium sat phone at 1200 Tokyo time

Skipper is fine and happy the rough weather is beginning to abate. Forecasts call for thunderstorms to be moving through the area over the next 5 days, though winds are not expected to be as strong.

As a test, we provided wind predictions over the next 48 hours for 6-hour intervals. Winds were predicted to be steady out of the NNW for 10 hours and by +16 hours were expected to veer out of the west and drop to 5 kt for the following 12 hours, then build back to 15 kt inside 2 days.

Added Comment
Saito noted that variable winds are common at the time of full moon tides (3/21) which have been occurring over the last several days. He is also in a low trough characterized by narrow bands of wind. At times he can be experiencing strong (15-20 kt) winds from the north, to find only a few hours or several miles later that he's entered a different wind band blowing in the opposite direction.

To investigate the Clearpoint weather software over the next several days we will attempt to track the accuracy of the predicted wind changes on a 6-hour basis.

This requires knowing the vessel's current position, heading, and average boat speed. We can estimate his position at 6-hour intervals along the expected track, then advance the prediction for the wind direction and speed at each point.

Saito has said that the general 24-hour wind predictions from Clearpoint have largely been accurate. The ability to make reliable predictions for specific times and points on his track, while not crucial for long-distance voyaging, can at least be educational to watch the effect of passing fronts, etc. Of course, competitive sailors could be hugely helped by this sort of wind data. As well, such information could prove to be life-saving to cruisers under the most severe weather conditions.

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Today's Report
Spoke with Saito-san by Iridium sat phone at 1200 Tokyo time

Mainsail 3-pt reef tiedowns were "broken" (nature unclear) during the night in strong wind making them unusable and the sail now can be raised to only the 2-pt reef line. This means the only usable sail positions are 2 pt and furled. Saito said the breaks cannot be fixed, that the sail is too light and weak for the wind conditions. Sails will be replaced. as planned, in Auckland.

Added Comment
Yesterday's wind predictions of 6-hour intervals were "all the same" Saito said. Interpretation: The wind change/speed at each time and 12-nm point on his track were in line with the predictions we gave him. Although it seemed apparent he did not specifically check them at each interval, they were accurate enough for him to notice the strong correlation. We provided another 35 hours of predictions today and will assess the results tomorrow.

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Today's Report
Spoke with Saito-san by Iridium sat phone at 1200 Tokyo time

We discussed the slow progress and he laid it to the fact that the main has either been at a 2-pt reef or furled most of the trip. He commented again that the furling headsail is basically a higher-cut "yankee" rather than a full jib. This means it is appreciably smaller than the usual working jib on a cruising sailboat.

(The vessel was bought in good structural condition, but "as-is." Replacement sails are to be acquired in Auckland.)

Added Comment
The test results of yesterday's wind predictions were "good!" Saito reported. Winds are settling as the low trough of the last 5 days moves east and south of his current position, and the usual westerly trade winds return. (More on the Clearpoint Weather software coming soon.)

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Today's Report
Spoke with Saito-san by Iridium sat phone at 1200 Tokyo time

Boat speed increased by 1 knot to 4 kt during the day.

Says he now knows that the engine is much more conservative on fuel if he motors at 2000 rpm or below. Has recently been motor/sailing 8 - 10 hours a day for battery recharging and to stay on track.

Temperatures now pleasant.

Added Comment
Today's was the best 24-hr distance since Day 44 when the weather became unsettled. It was his second 88 nm day since 98 nm on Day 22. The best day of this trip was 115 nm on Day 19.

For his Challenge 8 voyage, 120 nm is the expected average, for an approx. 200-day, non-stop circumnavigation that puts him back in time for a week of celebrations on the 150-year anniversary of the opening of Yokohama Port.
(June 2, 2009 -- http://www.city.yokohama.jp/me/keiei/kaikou/150/en/)

His average 24-hr distance on his 233-day non-stop voyage in 2005 was 93 nm.

***
Winds are still somewhat opposing out of the ESE over the next 9 hours (he reported E 5-9 at 1600 local), and will change to directly out of the E within 15 hours and stay like that at least for the next 18 hours at 11 kt.

Crossmark is position of vessel; orange dashed line shows the low trough that has now passed to the east. Arrows show the wind direction and strength. Lighter areas are less wind strength; orange areas indicate stronger wind.

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Today's Report
Spoke with Saito-san by Iridium sat phone at 1200 Tokyo time and again at 1300 hours.

Reported that our wind change predictions were "OK" but off some, in respect to time of changes and direction. (We had said mostly E and ESE, but actual wind was out of the NE.) Predicted wind speed was basically correct at 9-12 kt vs. actual at 10-14 kt.

Added Comment
Boat speed maintained just under 4 kt throughout the period clocking 110 nm for his best day since 115 nm on Day 19.

***
Shore crew received notice that a marina berth has been arranged for Saito in Auckland at Viaduct Harbour Marina, near the America's Cup yacht area. Thanks to Yachtspars New Zealand for this. More details to follow.

***
We are sourcing a replacement engine for installation in Auckland, ideally a Yanmar 120 to 150 HP, 4 cyl. reconditioned diesel. (The repowering will be overseen by Yachtspars, which has been chosen for the refit of mast, rigging, etc.) Existing engine has proven to be underpowered for the vessel.

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Today's Report
Spoke with Saito-san by Iridium sat phone at 1200 Tokyo time

Gave position report but he had trouble hearing the Tokyo side. He knows he has marina space in Auckland, but could not make out the name. (Viaduct Harbour Marina). Will provide him details tomorrow. He has detailed charts for Auckland.

Added Comment
Still making good time. Today was the second 110 nm day in a row, as tradewinds return and he leaves 1000 miles of mainly rain and frequent squalls. Now approaching a wide stationary high northeast of New Zealand with clear skies and strong westerly winds.

***
Yachtspars confirmed Saito-san can live aboard at the marina, contrary to the marina's web-posted "terms and conditions." We have registered him, so are waiting now for confirmation from marina management.

***
Royal Yacht Squadron New Zealand seems ready to roll out the welcome mat for his arrival -- if so, it will be fully in keeping with the tradition that puts Auckland high on Saito-san's list of favorite ports. He places New Zealanders he knows as among the world's best sailors, as well as the most hospitable.

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Today's Report
Spoke with Saito-san by Iridium sat phone at 1200 Tokyo time

Boat fine though progress slowed somewhat with a drop in wind strength. Also did some easterning to improve his approach to Auckland Harbor.

Added Comment
Skies are clearing as he sails into a high pressure system that should be with him the rest of the trip to Auckland. Winds will stay strong out of the east through the weekend and up to his arrival. That seems likely to be on Sunday.

***
Viaduct Harbour Marina confirmed with us today, so he's got his marina berth, on a day rate basis. The refit will see the boat being moved several times, so this will be convenient and centralized.

Viaduct Harbour Marina is right next to the Westhaven area where the America's Cup boats are, as well as the clubhouse of the Royal New Zealand Yacht Squadron. This was the general area where Saito hoped he'd go, and our rigger Yachtspars fortuitously booked him a slip there.

For a look at this famous club's spectacular history, click here.

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Today's Report
Spoke with Saito-san by Iridium sat phone at 1200 Tokyo time

Boat fine; wind gained strength. Happy to be finally out of the rain.

Added Comment
End of his of 3,825 nm journey is approaching, single-handed since Pago Pago.

Other than damaged sails and several broken cable shackles (on shrouds and running backstay), no major mechanical difficulties. Engine proved to be underpowered for the vessel and best kept at 2,000 rpm, the cruising speed Saito assessed to be its maximum level for efficient fuel use. Engine was used mainly for recharging batteries and to east against the trade winds. Also to maintain steerage during times of reduced winds. The hydraulic auto pilot would lose effectiveness under 2 kt.

Boat speed under small furling headsail and 2-pt reef was found to be 4 kt in winds of 12 - 15 kt, on a broad reach. Was capable of 5 kt in winds over 15 kt. Mainsail stayed at least partially reefed due to several rips under the 1 pt reef line. On Day 46, gale force winds during the night caused the loss of 4 sail slides. Thereafter was not able to raise the main past the 2-pt reef. Staysail clew was also damaged so staysail was kept furled since Day 46.

Preparations were under way for his arrival and include the following:

1. Received estimate for new engine from Yanmar dealer, who expects it to take 5 to 8 days for the installation.

2. Arranged marina berth for 1 month to 6 weeks, liveaboard, at Viaduct Harbour Marina. During the time the boat is being worked on he will stay in a hotel or on another vessel.

3. Arranged more details with Yachtspars (mast and rigging), including additional quotes for engine and sails.

4. Arranged customs clearance for Saito, providing detailed information by email.

5. Discussed with the Royal New Zealand Yacht Squadron a rendezvous to meet Saito on the water.

6. Conveyed all details to Saito.

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Today's Report
Spoke with Saito-san by Iridium sat phone at 1200 Tokyo time

Boat fine; wind has been strong and steady.

Added Comment
If you were watching closely, you may have caught the fact that Saito-san two days ago crossed over the International Date Line (antimeridian, yellow line) thus adding a day upon entering the eastern hemisphere. So 179 W became 179 E, as he passed through the 180 meridian. And for him Thursday suddenly became Friday.

From Wikipedia:

Crossing the IDL traveling east results in a day being subtracted, and crossing west results in a day being added.

Not confusing enough? For us it raised the potential for error on the day of the week given for the daily weather forecasts -- especially as he verged closer to the antimeridian. Thus, for instance, his "Thursday" and the weather given on the forecast's "Thursday" could have been one day different, depending on the weather sector that was accessed using the Clearpoint software.

This time no harm DONE -- but certainly worth remembering!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/180th_meridian
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Date_Line

***
Saito will be met at a prearranged rendezvous point (36 47 S, 174 48 E) by members of the Royal New Zealand Yacht Squadron. Expected to be in the morning Monday since nighttime port entry is generally to be avoided. So he'll either deliberately slow the boat or do some wide tacks to delay his arrival until well after daybreak.

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Today's Report